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https://docs.google.com/document/d/1F2Otej1ffh2Ek2k_5TksK5eK4OeJh2uARduHy6bMvYg/edit North Korea: Why it is unlikely to denuclearize

After two summits with President Trump, there are reasons to believe that North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un is having the last laugh on the American president. It is unlikely that Kim will denuclearize as Trump wants. There are three factors: the persistence of the US threat to North Korea's survival; Pyongyang's failure to keep its promises to denuclearize; and the serious weakening of North Korea by more than three decades of US economic sanctions.

The first factor is what Pyongyang regards as the persistence of the US threat to North Korea's survival. The US has a string of military bases in East Asia. Washington's targets are North Korea and China. The US also has 30,000 troops in South Korea under the September 1953 ROK-US Mutual Defense Treaty. Additionally, under the October 1951 Japan-US Mutual Security Treaty, the US stations 80,000 troops in Okinawa. In April 2019, Kim Jong Un, 36 years old, said that Pyongyang must deliver "serious blows" to those imposing economic sanctions. It was the first time that Kim stated North Korea's position after the Hanoi Summit's collapse in February 2019. Pyongyang's commitment to the "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" includes "eliminating the US nuclear threat to North Korea". North Korea says the US threat has forced it to strengthen its defences: Pyongyang spends an estimated 25% of its GDP on the military. In contrast, most states spend about 5%.

Kim's understanding of "denuclearization" is different from that of President Trump. The US wants the "Complete, Irreversible, Verifiable, Disarmament" of Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal, held under UN auspices. Kim warned in his January 2019 New Year Day's address that he would change course if Washington continued its sanctions. In July 2019, North Korea again tested short-range missiles which can hit Japan and South Korea. Instead of denuclearization, Kim is enhancing his nuclear capability.

The second factor is that North Korea had promised many times over the past 25 years to denuclearise but did not carry them out. Nuclear weapons are North Korea's only bargaining chip. Undermining the US-ROK Security Alliance would sow doubt that Washington would come to the defence of Japan and the ROK. It would show that North Korea is not easily toppled by outside powers, unlike Libya (Gaddafi), Iraq (Saddam Hussein), or the Balkans (Slobodan Milosevic). Third, Kim wants faster economic growth for North Korea. Between 2010 and 2016, the economy stagnated at 0.5% annual growth. In 2018, the North Korean economy shrank 4.1%, the slowest growth in 20 years. With a GDP per capita of less than US$2,000 per annum, North Korea is one of the poorest countries on earth. An estimated 20% of North Korean children are malnourished. Faster economic growth would boost Kim's political legitimacy.

The China-North Korea relationship has been marked by ups and downs. President Xi Jinping made his first official visit to North Korea in June 2019, ahead of the G20 Osaka Summit. It restored warmer Sino-North Korean relations. The Korean Peninsula has become an intense diplomatic battleground in the strategic rivalry between Beijing and Washington. Beijing supports a stable and peaceful North Korea. But China is ambivalent about a nuclear-armed North Korea: A reunified Korea would mean the presence of US troops just outside China's border. This is unacceptable to Beijing. Kim is seeking more Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments from China. But Kim is careful not to become too dependent on Beijing. Kim visited Russia in April 2019. Kim showed his desire to lessen his unhealthy dependence on Beijing. For Putin, it showed that a resolution of the North Korean issue requires the Kremlin's participation. Kim is concerned with the poor state of the North Korean economy. He is considering setting up South Korean-style industrial conglomerates, or 'chaebols'. With more capitalist-style economic reforms, North Korea could become the next "Asian tiger economy'.

KB Teo is a former diplomat with the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He attended the UN General Assembly as part of the MFA delegation.